Solar activity forecast: what to expect on July 11

By Jurassic JennJul 11, 2024 10:56 AMGeomagnetic Storm
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Solar activity forecast for July 11
Solar activity forecast for July 11. Source: https://www.salon.com

Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels in the next few days. There is a 60% chance of M-class flares occurring and a 10% chance of isolated X-class flares. Fortunately, no coronal mass ejections (CMEs) heading towards Earth have been observed in recent coronagraph imagery, SSP reported.

The proton flux in the greater than 10 MeV energy range, as detected by GOES, has remained at background levels over the past 24 hours and is predicted to remain stable in the coming days. The electron flux in the greater than 2 MeV energy range, monitored by both GOES 16 and GOES 18, has stayed below the threshold of 1000 pfu. This trend is expected to continue.

The 24-hour electron fluence has been at a nominal level and is likely to remain unaffected in the upcoming days.

Late on July 11, there is a possibility of transitioning from quiet to active conditions as high-speed streams are expected to arrive. The solar wind parameters, as indicated by ACE and DSCOVR, suggest the presence of background slow solar wind with a velocity range of 355 km/s to 438 km/s.

The interplanetary magnetic field has experienced minor variations, reaching a maximum value of 8.6 nT, while the minimum value of Bz recorded was -5 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field, measured by the B field phi angle, has been oscillating between the negative and positive sectors.

There may be some weak enhancements in solar wind activity on July 11 as mild high-speed stream arrivals are anticipated.

Please note that these observations and forecasts are provisional. Keep an eye out for any updates or changes in the solar activity. Monitoring these conditions can help inform communication networks and electrical system operators who may be impacted by magnetic storms.

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